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Those are just the table stakes for Trump.
??Basically, what he's got to do is draw an inside straight,? said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster.
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio and North Carolina (and protects the GOP turn of Arizona and Utah and Georgia), he would stand at 253 electoral votes ?? 17 shy of the magic number of 270.
Those final 17 electoral votes have proved trickiest. Here are his treacherous paths:
1. Win the Keystone State?Pennsylvania (20): 273 electoral votes
On paper, this is the simplest and fastest path. Trump needs only to add Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes to win. But the reality on the ground is far thornier. Trump has trailed in 39 consecutive Pennsylvania polls, dating back to the conventions (though one GOP poll this week showed it tied).
Trump has visited over and over, targeting it perhaps foremost as the state in the so-called blue wall ?? states and D.C. that have gone Democratic in every contest since 1992 worth a combined 242 electoral votes ?? that he hopes to steal back. It was in Pennsylvania that Trump delivered his big anti-trade speech months ago as his campaign hoped to gin up protectionist-favoring turnout in the mining-heavy and more conservative western and central regions of the state.
But Trump's long history of attacks on women have hamstrung him in the voter-rich Philadelphia suburbs. A Monmouth University poll this week showed Clinton up 62 percent to 29 percent in Philadelphia and its suburbs. So it was no accident that those suburban counties were where Trump campaigned with running mate Mike Pence against Obamacare on Tuesday, and where the campaign had Melania Trump deliver her first solo speech on Thursday.
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